Uber’s exit from Nigeria wasn’t the result of one bad quarter or a policy mistep. Obi’s exclusive driver trip-level data (20,298 rides) points to a business that was structurally underwater on a large share of its own rides. On trips under roughly 20km, Uber was paying drivers more than it charged riders, by as much as 23% on some distance bands. A subsidy that was only survivable at scale, and Nigeria didn’t have it: drivers there averaged 130 rides over seven months versus 1,142 in South Africa, an 8.8x gap in per-driver activity.

Uber also had almost no room left to fix this through commissions. Nigerian drivers were already keeping 80–90% of the fare, well above what Uber was taking in South Africa (71% climbing to just 84% over the same months). And pricing wasn’t the answer either: a 71% fare hike (₦574 → ₦983/km) still didn’t close the short-trip subsidy. Naira volatility made pricing and profit repatriation harder still, on top of driver protests over fares and commissions in 2017, 2023, and 2025.

The day after Uber announced its exit, Obi surveyed Uber drivers directly, and their responses back up the trip level data. Drivers themselves pointed to currency pressures (57%) and regulatory issues (51%) ahead of thin fares and commissions (44%) as reasons Uber left. Most had already hedged their bets with 80% multi-apping with Bolt or InDrive before the exit was even announced. 49% of drivers surveyed now expect to lose half or more of their monthly income as a result.

Uber Nigeria’s intent was sound, but its pricing engine was over-generous to keep short-trip supply online, in a market that couldn’t grow its top line fast enough to fund it.

Read the full 10 page report with additional charts and data below.