Are you worried about enormous rideshare price surges on New Year’s Eve and the hours past midnight? Barring a freak weather event, you may be in the clear, according to new analysis from Obi, the global real-time aggregator for rideshare prices. Data from 2022-2024 has shown that the wild price deviations that used to define the end of the holiday season have largely been tempered, likely due to proactive work on behalf of companies like Uber and Lyft.

Pricing variation has steadily declined over the past three years. In 2022, Obi’s research found that a $7.91 variance occurred between the high and low for daily average prices for the major U.S. rideshare companies, Uber and Lyft, during the eight days from Christmas Eve to New Year’s Day. In 2023, that dropped to $4.48. By 2024, the pricing discrepancy during the holidays was down to $2.34. 

“Historically, the week that encompasses Christmas and New Year’s Day has notably high- and low-volume days for rideshare travel, creating high variability,” said Ashwini Anburajan, CEO of Obi. 

“It’s also a week when people have high-priority places to be and want to be able to get there easily, and when there are many people taking rideshares that ordinarily would drive or take public transit,” Anburajan added. “When there’s unexpected surge pricing or long wait times, that can result in mounting customer frustration. So it’s no surprise that it seems Uber and Lyft continue to work hard to mitigate this.”

Obi’s data trove comes from hundreds of thousands of rides booked through its app, which allows rideshare users to compare the prices of all available rideshare services in their area, a utility that can save a regular rideshare user thousands of dollars annually. According to a recent study from the National Bureau of Economic Research, failure to compare prices between Uber and Lyft costs New York City residents alone an estimated $300 million annually. 

Christmas Day and New Year’s Day have historically seen spikes in Uber and Lyft pricing, but for different reasons. On Christmas, ride volume is far below baselines and high prices are likely due to low supply, i.e. fewer drivers working that day. Wait times in this period are generally 10% higher than December baselines. On New Year’s Day, pricing ticks up due to high demand – not just from partygoers heading home in the early hours of the morning, but in some cases also to take rideshares to pick up their cars from the night before or to head to football games or viewing parties.

Combined with overall decreases in rideshare prices attributable to lower gas prices, this levelling out of price disparities has also led to cheaper New Year’s Day rides:

• In 2022, the average nationwide price of a ride on New Year’s Day was $33.25 (20.3% above the December baseline price of $27.64). 
• In 2023, it was $26.35 (15.8% above the baseline price of $22.75). 
• Last year, the entire week’s pricing actually fell below December baselines. The average price of a ride was $19.44 on New Year’s Day, making it fall 10.2% below the baseline price of $21.64.

Not only are prices not surging as much as they used to, the increased volume of rides on New Year’s Day is no longer translating to long wait times: Last year, wait times for an Uber or Lyft on New Year’s Day were virtually identical to December baselines.

“Until very recently, relying on rideshares for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day often required accepting some unpleasant surprises in the form of high prices and long wait times,” Anburajan said. “While there may still be spikes, particularly in the face of unexpected bad weather, rideshare companies have clearly worked hard to ensure that their services are something that New Year’s revelers can rely on. At Obi, we’re ensuring that rideshare users have the most information available to them so that they can make the best choices possible on New Year’s and beyond.”

Where is the biggest increase in rideshare demand? That’s complicated

Increases in rideshare usage volume on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day vary year-to-year in major metropolitan areas, dependent on many factors that range from weather, to the presence or absence of attractions like a major New Year’s Eve concert, to whether there’s an NFL game nearby or a college football bowl game on New Year’s Eve or Day. 

“The weather can have an unpredictable impact on rideshare use, especially for late-night activities like New Year’s Eve,” said Anburajan. “Cold or snowy weather may compel people to rely on a rideshare when they otherwise might have taken public transit. But there’s a tipping point. Unusually bad weather could make them decide to stay inside rather than going out at all.”

Rideshare patterns in individual metro areas reflect broader aspects of what celebrating the New Year is like in those cities. Here are a few highlights:

• In Nashville, a legendary party destination with the rideshare volume to match: Among major U.S. cities, Nashville consistently ranks near the top when it comes to rideshare volume surges on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. That checks out: Partygoers may be flying in and relying on rideshare services for the duration of their stay.

• In New York, a clear transit preference breakdown before and after midnight: The country’s most famous destination for New Year’s Eve ranks unsurprisingly high in rideshare volume each year. But while New Year’s Day ride volume is higher that New Year’s Eve volume in every metro area that Obi surveyed, the gap is disproportionately high in NYC (in 2024, +144% above December baselines on New Year’s Eve and +310% on New Year’s Day), likely because many revelers take the subway on their way out and rely on rideshares for the return trip.
  

• In the Twin Cities, high volume in consecutive years – but for different reasons: On New Year’s Eve in 2023, rideshare volume in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area had one of the biggest surges in the country, followed by a less notable New Year’s Day surge. That’s likely attributable to the Minnesota Vikings’ home game against the Green Bay Packers on December 31. A year later, the Twin Cities had even bigger rideshare usage surges, and this time they hit both New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. The likely reason this time? Snow flurries and frigid wind chills.
  
  

• In Chicago, a limit to what the Windy City will tolerate: Like New York, Chicago hosts a massive outdoor New Year’s celebration. In 2023, this likely propelled the city to have the biggest volume surges out of all metro areas in the U.S. on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, especially since light snowfall may have deterred urban dwellers from wanting to walk to and from public transit stops. But a year later – despite the NHL Winter Classic taking place at Wrigley Field on New Year’s Eve – Chicago was relegated to the middle of the pack. High winds and freezing rain hit the region, with municipal officials warning that the wind forecast could postpone the city’s fireworks show. The lower volume surge is a sign that the weather was just too bad for many people, who likely opted to celebrate closer to home.

Obi’s industry-leading reports on price comparisons, wait times, and consumer sentiments around rideshares in their areas have led to deep insights about how people are getting around in today’s age. An exclusive Obi report earlier this year that detailed self-driving car brand Waymo’s entry into the San Francisco market has been cited in The New York Times, Axios, TechCrunch, and more.

View more Obi data reports here.

For all press and media inquiries please contact Caroline McCarthy at caroline@rideobi.com